Game-Theoretic Risk Management for Counterterrorism
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چکیده
Federal agencies have finite resources. Even for critical purposes related to counterterrorism, resources must be allocated in the most effective ways possible. Statistical risk analysis can help by accounting for uncertainties in the costs and benefits of particular efforts, and game theory can help by accounting for the fact that terrorists adapt their attacks in response to homeland defense initiatives. This paper describes a procedure that uses risk analysis to generate random payoff matrices for game theory solution, and then pools the solutions from multiple realizations of the payoff matrix to estimate the probability that a given play is optimal. The strategy is illustrated for risk management in the context of a simplified model of the threat of smallpox attack.
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